The Indonesian government plans to revise the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) for the coal sector as a strategic move to improve coal prices by better aligning supply with demand, especially amid global oversupply that has been pressuring prices. As part of this effort, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will lower the national coal production target—from around 790 million tonnes in 2025 to about 600 million tonnes in 2026—to help stabilize prices while ensuring sustainable resource management and energy availability for future generations, with mining companies expected to adjust their operational plans accordingly.
In line with the national plan to reduce coal production, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that 2025 marks the historical peak of global coal demand. From 2026 to 2030, global demand is expected to remain relatively flat, followed by a gradual decline. Looking further ahead, beyond 2030, coal demand as projected by the IEA is set to continue decreasing year after year.
Under the Sustainable Development Scenario—defined as a surge in clean energy policies and investments that puts the global energy system on track to fully achieve sustainable energy objectives—coal demand is projected to decline quite sharply.
This raises an important question: what does this mean for coal mining stocks in Indonesia? Does this imply that coal mining companies will gradually fade away and lose their ability to generate record-high sales in the future?
Before addressing this question directly, it is essential to first understand the current state of coal demand across different regions, as well as the outlook for future demand.
